Caribbean warned of possible intensification of existing drought situation

The Bar­ba­dos-based Caribbean Cli­mate Out­look Fo­rum (Cari­COF) Mon­day said as the Caribbean tran­si­tions out of the At­lantic Hur­ri­cane Sea­son, it will have to deal with a very strong El Niño event that could among oth­er things re­sult in a po­ten­tial ex­pan­sion and or in­ten­si­fi­ca­tion of drought.

In its lat­est Caribbean Cli­mate Out­looks pub­li­ca­tion, cov­er­ing the pe­ri­od No­vem­ber to Jan­u­ary next year, Cari­COF said al­so that the tran­si­tion could al­so lead to few­er episodes of ex­ces­sive heat, though un­sea­son­ably high tem­per­a­tures for the cool sea­son are very like­ly.

It said that there could be un­usu­al­ly low show­er, wet spell and ex­ces­sive rain­fall fre­quen­cy, ex­cept in the far north­west of the re­gion; high po­ten­tial for flood­ing, flash floods, cas­cad­ing haz­ards and as­so­ci­at­ed im­pacts re­mains across the re­gion, with the pos­si­ble ex­cep­tion of the ABC (Aru­ba, Bon­naire and Cu­ra­cao) Is­lands and French Guiana.

In ad­di­tion the re­gion is be­ing warned of coral reef bleach­ing po­ten­tial around the Ba­hamas and the Greater An­tilles through De­cem­ber.

Cari­COF said that dusty Sa­ha­ran air in­trustions, though not so fre­quent in this sea­son, can tem­porar­i­ly ex­ac­er­bate heat and de­te­ri­o­rate air qual­i­ty while in­hibit­ing in­tense show­er ac­tiv­i­ty

It said that short-term drought has as of Oc­to­ber 1, this year, de­vel­oped across the An­tilles ex­cept south east Bar­ba­dos, north east Do­mini­ca, Do­mini­can Re­pub­lic, north east Guade­loupe, north and west Ja­maica, Puer­to Ri­co, Trinidad, parts of the Ba­hamas, Be­lize, French Guiana, and Guyana.

Long-term drought is im­mi­nent in St. Lu­cia, evolv­ing in ABC Isands, An­tigua, north and north west Ba­hamas, north Be­lize, Unit­ed States Vir­gin Is­lands and and might at the end of No­vem­ber pos­si­bly de­vel­op or con­tin­ue in Grand Cay­man, Grena­da, Mar­tinique, St. Vin­cent, To­ba­go.

Cari­COF said that agri­cul­tur­al drought is evolv­ing in north­ern Be­lize, Do­mini­ca, Mar­tinique, and might pos­si­bly de­vel­op or con­tin­ue in An­tigua, east­ern­Ja­maica, St. Lu­cia, St. Vin­cent and To­ba­go. —BRIDGETOWN, Bar­ba­dos (CMC)