Tropical Wave development threat fades but bad weather still coming

Seigo­nie Mo­hammed

The trop­i­cal wave we’ve been track­ing across the At­lantic is now just 550 km east of the Wind­ward Is­lands, and its chances of de­vel­op­ing have fall­en sharply.

As of 2 pm Fri­day, the Trinidad and To­ba­go Me­te­o­ro­log­i­cal Ser­vice (TTMS) says the sys­tem has on­ly a 10% chance of be­com­ing a trop­i­cal de­pres­sion be­fore reach­ing the Wind­wards, as it moves in­to in­creas­ing­ly un­favourable at­mos­pher­ic con­di­tions.

That’s down from 80% on Wednes­day and 60% on Thurs­day.

But here’s the im­por­tant dis­tinc­tion: a sys­tem does not need to be­come a trop­i­cal de­pres­sion or storm to pro­duce im­pact­ful weath­er.

The wave is still fore­cast to move across the Wind­ward Is­lands from Fri­day night in­to Sat­ur­day, bring­ing the po­ten­tial for heavy rain­fall and gusty winds. The most sig­nif­i­cant weath­er is ex­pect­ed to favour Bar­ba­dos and the North­ern Wind­ward Is­lands.

And here at home, con­di­tions are al­so ex­pect­ed to de­te­ri­o­rate.

A Yel­low-Lev­el Ad­verse Weath­er Alert will take ef­fect for Trinidad and To­ba­go and sur­round­ing wa­ters from mid­night tonight through 5 pm Sat­ur­day.

The pas­sage of the trop­i­cal wave could trig­ger iso­lat­ed heavy show­ers and thun­der­storms. While wide­spread heavy rain­fall is not ex­pect­ed, some ar­eas could ex­pe­ri­ence in­tense down­pours and strong wind gusts.

Pos­si­ble im­pacts in­clude wind gusts near 50 km/h in the vicin­i­ty of heavy show­ers and thun­der­storms, which could top­ple trees and dis­place loose out­door ob­jects. In­tense down­pours may al­so lead to street or flash flood­ing and lo­calised pond­ing, while gusty con­di­tions could re­sult in chop­py seas.