EXPLAINER
The war launched by the United States and Israel against Iran entered its 25th day on Tuesday, as conflicting claims emerged over possible peace talks.
US President Donald Trump said Washington was holding discussions with Tehran and suggested a broader agreement could be reached, but Iranian officials rejected the claims, accusing the US of trying to buy time as it deploys more forces to the region.
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Trump also ordered the US military to postpone planned strikes on Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure for five days.
Meanwhile, Iran fired a new missile barrage at Israel, Gulf countries reported repeated drone and missile interceptions, and fighting intensified in Lebanon and Iraq.
Here is what we know:
In Iran
- Trump’s claims: Trump claimed that discussions are ongoing with Iran to reach a broader peace agreement, stating that “Iran means business.”
- Iran’s denial: Iranian officials firmly rejected these claims, with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and parliamentary leaders calling the statements “fake news” and a “big lie”. Iranian officials have accused the US of fabricating these claims to manipulate global oil and financial markets, and to buy time as more US troops deploy to the region.
- US ultimatum: Over the weekend, Trump had issued a 48-hour deadline demanding that Iran reopen the Strait of Hormuz. He threatened to “obliterate” Iranian power plants if Tehran failed to comply. On Monday, the deadline was extended for five days.
- Strait of Hormuz remains closed: Despite international pressure and severe economic fallout in Asia, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi iterated that Iran’s stance on the Strait of Hormuz had not changed.
- US motivations and political pressures: Niall Stanage, a White House columnist for The Hill, suggests that Trump may be looking for an “exit ramp” because the war has been domestically unpopular and is causing significant economic pain, particularly through rising oil and fuel prices.
- Iranian suspicion and strategy: Reporting from Tehran, Al Jazeera’s Mohammed Vall noted that Iranian officials and state media are firmly projecting what he described as the “power of defiance”. Vall explained that Tehran harbours deep suspicion regarding any messaging from Washington, viewing Trump’s claims of peace talks as “manoeuvring” aimed at “winning time”.
- Pro-government rallies: Despite heavy rain and the threat of bombardment, large crowds of pro-government demonstrators gathered in Tehran and other Iranian cities to denounce the US and Israel.
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In the Gulf
- Attacks targeting Saudi Arabia and Bahrain: Saudi Arabia intercepted approximately 20 drones targeting its Eastern Province, a critical region that houses the majority of the kingdom’s energy and oil facilities. Additionally, Bahrain’s Ministry of Interior has sounded warning alarms numerous times over the past 24 hours.
- Regional sentiment across the Gulf: Officials and civilians are pleading for dialogue and de-escalation.
- UK sends Gulf air defences: The UK is sending short-range air defence systems to the Middle East to counter Iranian missile attacks, Prime Minister Keir Starmer said.
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In the US
- Administration’s stance on Iran peace talks: Following Trump’s claims of having “productive” conversations with Tehran, the White House has pushed back against speculation regarding an imminent deal. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt cautioned that the situation is “fluid” and stated that “speculation about meetings should not be deemed as final” until officially announced.
- Pentagon closes press offices: The US Department of Defense is closing its famous “Correspondents’ Corridor” and relocating press offices to an unnamed annex. This decision comes after a district court struck down the Trump administration’s new press credential rules, which would have required journalists to sign agreements promising not to publish classified or unauthorised information.
- Threat level raised in Mauritania: The US Embassy in Mauritania has issued an elevated threat notice for American citizens and embassy staff due to a recent threat of “terrorist attacks”.
In Israel
- New missile salvo: Iran fired missiles at Israel early Tuesday, the Israeli military said, noting that the barrage was aimed at the country’s north and that its substantial air defences were “working to intercept the threat”.
- Israeli interceptor system malfunctions: A malfunction in Israel’s “David’s Sling” aerial interceptor system allowed two Iranian ballistic missiles to strike the south of the country, wounding dozens of people over the weekend, the military confirmed.
- Trump-Netanyahu call: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he had spoken with Trump and that the US president believed the countries’ military gains in Iran could be converted into a negotiated agreement that protected Israel’s interests.
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In Lebanon, Iraq, Syria
- Israel attacks Beirut suburbs: An Israeli attack hit the Lebanese capital’s southern suburbs, hours after the Israeli army issued a warning for residents of the area to evacuate, saying it was “striking Hezbollah infrastructure in Beirut”.
- Lebanon’s escalation: Al Jazeera’s Obaida Hitto, reporting from Beirut, described a “significant escalation” as Israel expands its ground operations and destroys vital infrastructure, such as bridges. Hitto stresses that this strategy is trapping civilians and making it “extremely difficult” for the Lebanese armed forces to deliver humanitarian aid to the more than one million people displaced by the war.
- Syrian base targeted: Syria’s army said Monday that one of its bases in the northeast was hit by a missile strike from neighbouring Iraq, while an Iraqi official said a local armed group was behind the attack.
- Military strikes in Iraq: The US military launched a strike in Iraq’s Anbar province on the headquarters of an Iran-backed armed group. The attack was aimed at the group’s senior commander, Saad Dawai.
- Iraq’s battleground: Nicolas Haque, reporting from Baghdad, characterised Iraq as a secondary battleground where the US and Iran-backed groups are “battling it out”. Haque noted that the US was engaging in “deliberate but calibrated targets” against leaders of the Iran-aligned groups, leaving the Iraqi people caught in the crossfire.
Oil, energy markets and Hormuz
- Stranded ships and South Korean turmoil: The closure has highly affected South Korea, which relies on the Middle East for more than 70 percent of its oil. The crisis forced the South Korean prime minister to cancel a trip to China to deal with the domestic economic fallout.
- Japan’s energy emergency: The situation is also dire for Japan, as nearly 95 percent of the country’s oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz.
- Targeting Hormuz ‘economic terrorism’: The chief of the UAE’s state energy company ADNOC slammed Tehran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which has caused a surge in oil prices, as “economic terrorism against every nation”.
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