Uncertainties ahead, as 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season starts in El Niño year

The ex­ec­u­tive di­rec­tor of the Caribbean Re­gion­al Fish­eries Mech­a­nism (CRFM), Dr. Marc Williams is ques­tion­ing how the Caribbean fish­eries and aqua­cul­ture will fare off dur­ing the 2026 At­lantic Hur­ri­cane Sea­son, which be­gan on Mon­day.

The Be­lize-based CRFM said that the an­swer will de­pend on how well the re­gion is pre­pared and re­sponds in the af­ter­math of ad­verse weath­er, not­ing that this year, the re­gion must al­so con­sid­er the po­ten­tial im­pacts of El Niño on its fish­eries, both in the short term and the long term.

El Niño is a glob­al cli­mate phe­nom­e­non that emerges from vari­a­tion in winds and sea sur­face tem­per­a­tures and over the trop­i­cal Pa­cif­ic Ocean.

“Every year, our fish­eries and aqua­cul­ture sec­tor faces dam­age to ves­sels, fish farms, land­ing sites, equip­ment, and ma­rine ecosys­tems. These chal­lenges di­rect­ly af­fect food se­cu­ri­ty, liveli­hoods, na­tion­al economies, and the well-be­ing of our peo­ple,” said Williams.

The CRFM se­nior of­fi­cial not­ed the sec­tor’s vul­ner­a­bil­i­ties, adding that the Caribbean fish­eries and aqua­cul­ture sec­tor con­tin­ues to demon­strate re­mark­able re­silience, in­no­va­tion, and de­ter­mi­na­tion.

But he stressed that “pre­pared­ness saves lives, pro­tects liveli­hoods, and re­duces re­cov­ery costs” and must be a per­ma­nent pil­lar of the re­gion’s fish­eries and aqua­cul­ture de­vel­op­ment strate­gies.

CRFM said that al­though a pos­i­tive con­se­quence of El Niño could be the sup­pres­sion of hur­ri­cane ac­tiv­i­ty, its im­pacts on our cli­mate and weath­er could fur­ther­more erode the health of Caribbean coral reefs as well as im­pact fish catch­es.

The US-based Na­tion­al Ocean­ic and At­mos­pher­ic Ad­min­is­tra­tion (NOAA) said El Niño al­so comes with warmer av­er­age sea sur­face tem­per­a­tures, which may stress corals. It is a dou­ble-edged sword, as El Niño con­di­tions tend to sup­port less trop­i­cal storms and hur­ri­canes, while warmer ocean tem­per­a­tures and low winds sup­port a more ac­tive year.

“Al­though El Niño’s im­pact in the At­lantic Basin can of­ten sup­press hur­ri­cane de­vel­op­ment, there is still un­cer­tain­ty in how each sea­son will un­fold. That is why it’s es­sen­tial to re­view your hur­ri­cane pre­pared­ness plan now. It on­ly takes one storm to make for a very bad sea­son,’ said NOAA’s Na­tion­al Weath­er Ser­vice Di­rec­tor Ken Gra­ham.

Williams said there is need for strength­en­ing ear­ly warn­ing sys­tems; im­prove cli­mate-smart prac­tices; en­hance fish­eries safe­ty and ma­rine fore­cast­ing as well as in­vest in re­silient in­fra­struc­ture across the val­ue chain and equip peo­ple with the tools, knowl­edge, tech­nol­o­gy, and sup­port sys­tems.

“As we en­ter an­oth­er hur­ri­cane sea­son, let us re­main vig­i­lant, unit­ed, and pre­pared,” Williams said. —BEL­MOPAN, Be­lize (CMC)