UWI political scientist Dr Indira Rampersad says it is too early to say whether the new coalition which the UNC is trying to form for the next general election will be anything like the former People's Partnership (PP) coalition that it led from 2010-2015.
On December 12, Opposition Leader Kamla Persad-Bissessar met with representatives of some political parties and trade unions to discuss the creation of a "coalition of interests".
In an interview on December 13, Rampersad said, "It has not yet formed so you cannot say how strong it would be."
But she added, "What I will say categorically is that any coalition can work in favour of the UNC."
Rampersad recalled that the UNC's predecessor, the United Labour Front (ULF), was part of the National Alliance for Reconstruction (NAR).
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The ULF left the NAR in 1988 after differences between its leader Basdeo Panday and NAR leader Arthur NR Robinson.
The UNC was subsequently created in 1989.
Rampersad said, "For me for the UNC, it augurs well because they have always won elections under a strong coalition."
She viewed the involvement of trade unions in this coalition as important, given the level of disenchantment of workers in several areas of industrial relations.
"If the UNC could garner some votes from those entities, that could work in their favour."
Rampersad said while smaller parties in the coalition may not receive many votes or win a constituency, "the notion of a coalition has a psychological impact on the voter, on the electorate."
She described it as a ripple effect.
"If that ripple effect spills over into the marginal constituencies, which is what is most desirable, then the new coalition can garner those seats. Those are the seats you need to win an election."
Rampersad said this coalition would have to consider whether it would partner with political parties in Tobago, namely the Tobago People Party (TPP).
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"If they go that way with talks with (TPP leader) Farley Augustine...there is a lot of disenchantment against the PNM in Tobago...the rising crime rate...the high cost of living...unemployment...the whole issue of autonomy."
Rampersad said if the TPP wins Tobago West and Tobago East and there is an accommodation with the UNC, "then the chances of the UNC winning the election is greater.
"There are multiple benefits in a coalition for the UNC because that is how they would have won elections in the past.
"UNC generally have not been fielding candidates in Tobago. So if they are having that kind of coalition that certainly should be discussed before."
On Persad-Bissessar's concerns about the shifting of electoral boundaries and alleged collusion between the PNM and the Elections and Boundaries Commission (EBC) to help the PNM win the election, Rampersad said, "I can't analyse assumptions."
But she added there are always suspicions about who benefits when polling stations are shifted from safe to marginal constituencies.
Rampersad said, "The way the boundaries are drawn it does favour (the) PNM."
Speaking to the media on December 12, Persad-Bissessar referred to a newspaper report which claimed that EBC Chief Elections Officer Fern Narcis-Scope said the commission should verify the voters' lists for 23 constituencies early next year and the commission faces challenges such as funding.
She recalled raising concerns about voter verification in the House of Representatives on December 9 during debate on the Draft EBC Order 2024.
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Persad-Bissessar said, "I would like to ask and I am always very suspicious when it comes to the EBC and this government."
