POLITICAL analyst Dr Bishnu Ragoonath was not under-estimating the importance of the PNM General Council meeting called for January 11 and reckoned that until that time many phones of PNM activists would be constantly buzzing by factional interests seeking to lobby and persuade ahead of expected discussion on the succession to the Prime Minister. He spoke to Newsday on January 10.
Recently Dr Rowley held a retreat in Tobago where Energy Minister Stuart Young edged Planning Minister Pennelope Beckles by 11/nine votes to become TT's next PM, who is chosen as commanding most MPs, under the TT Constitution (section 76(1)).
While Rowley is proposing to first establish a new PM, then have the PNM fight the general election, and then let the party choose its leader, Ragoonath suggested the general council could exert some sway in the process of choosing a new PM even though its legal authority extends only to choosing a political leader.
"If the general council meeting admonishes Keith Rowley and says he agreed to serve as PM and just can't walk away from being PM, then he could simply come back the next day and advise the President to dissolve Parliament."
Saying Rowley would have 90 days between dissolving Parliament and holding a general election, Ragoonath speculated that within that period the PNM could hold a convention to vote for a new leader to take them into the election, if he decides he was really retiring. Those are all options."
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He generally mulled a general election being held in July or August.
"This projection, however, does not take into consideration what will happen tomorrow (January 11).
"If the general council puts a squeeze on Keith Rowley and says no, you cannot project Stuart Young as the leader, they could force his hand.
"They could also ask him tomorrow to give them a clear timetable as to what are his plans in terms of retirement and they could push for a convention before the general election. We really don't know how this is going to play out tomorrow."
Ragoonath expressed respect for the general council.
"I am almost certain that today there is a heavy level of lobbying by the Keith Rowley administration to general council members to kind of get them to vote in a particular way tomorrow. But as it stands right now, we really have to wait and see, whether general council will stand up against Keith Rowley tomorrow based on calls made by Ferdie Ferreira, Robert Le Hunte and Jennifer Baptiste-Primus, or whether the general council will collapse and give in to Keith Rowley."
Ragoonath reckoned the general council would ask Rowley when he would resign as PNM leader and whether the party would fight the general election with him as party leader and Young as prime minister.
"Bearing in mind we are going into an election, are we going to have a dual-headed leadership?
"Stuart Young will be prime minister but what happens to the PNM and who leads the PNM into the election?
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"He (Rowley) cannot hand-pick someone and tell him he will lead the PNM, so my question is was it his plan for Stuart Young to be PM and who will be political leader and lead the party into an election?"
Ragoonath said if Rowley led the PNM into the election, he would not be a candidate nor be expecting to become the next prime minister.
"So that is where the general council has to pull the (PNM) Constitution and tell him 'We have no problem with you getting your 21 MPs and putting Stuart Young as PM, but the PNM has an election to fight and who is leading the PNM into this election?'"
Newsday asked whether Rowley's reckoning was that if the PNM won the election under Young as prime minister, he would likely then be unopposed to become party leader.
Ragoonath replied, "But flip it. If he (Young) leads the party and the party loses, then are we getting rid of both Rowley and Young at the same time? The convention will say 'Are we going to vote for a person who just led us into a defeat in the election?"
Ragoonath also mulled a situation where the PNM wins the general election under Young.
"Once he gets an electoral victory and as prime minister, there is no moving him. That cements his position (as PNM leader)."
