THE PNM is ahead in the race to win the Tobago West and Tobago East constituencies in the April 28 general election.
These were the findings of a North American Caribbean Teachers Association (NACTA) survey which was released on April 4.
NACTA said its survey showed the PNM would retain both constituencies which it has held since September 2015 because its political opponents were terribly fractured.
"However, both seats remain competitive, and if the divided opposition were to heal their rift or bury the hatchet and come together, they have a fighting chance to capture one or both seats from the PNM and be in a strong position to make demands from the central government in Trinidad."
NACTA said, "Polling engagements on the ground reveal a disgruntled electorate that is election fatigued of the PNM that has controlled both seats since the 2015 general elections. Voters are not showing much enthusiasm not only in Tobago but nationally as well."
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In Tobago, NACTA continued, there is a three way split in the face to win its two constituencies
The three competitive parties are PNM, TPP (Tobago People Party led by Tobago House of Assembly Chief Secretary Farley Augustine) and the PDP led by Watson Duke.
NACTA said the PNM is currently in the lead in Tobago West and Tobago East.
Other parties such as the Patriotic Front, UTP, IDA, and any independent candidates may not make an impact with Tobago voters.
NACTA said, "In Tobago East, the PNM leads TPP closely followed by PDP with a significant percentage of voters who are undecided and who hold the faith of the candidates."
In Tobago West, NACTA added, "PNM has a larger lead over TPP with PDP trailing way behind."
NACTA said, "In both seats, PNM leads TPP with PDF third. But the PNM is well short of a majority in Tobago East with TPP inching upwards. The PNM is also short of a majority in Tobago West, but it is not beyond the capability of TPP and or PDP to unseat it if there is a huge turnout."
Going up separately and divided, NACTA continued, the TPP and PDP will find it an uphill task to unseat the PNM.
"Yet, it remains a close election in Tobago and one to be watched because if there is a narrow seats margin in Trinidad, such as 20-19, Tobago could hold the balance of power as it did since 2020."
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While PNM, TPP and PDP supporters are confident of victory, NACTA says the advantage of incumbency and a badly splintered Tobago opposition which has turned off many potential voters has given an advantage to the PNM at this time.
