THE April 28 general election is up for grabs with organisation and election-day machinery being one of the keys to victory.
The outcome of the election could be determined by the results in nine marginal constituencies.
The election could either be won by the PNM or the UNC.
Both parties are banking heavily on young voters to secure victory at the polls.
These were some of the latest findings of a North American Caribbean Teachers Association (NACTA) tracking survey that was released on April 26.
"Current polling is clear that this election is still up for grabs by either side (PNM or UNC). Election-day organisation and machinery will determine the winner in the marginals and by extension the general election."
Of the 41 constituencies being contested, NACTA identified nine of them as key to determining the election winner.
All nine are marginal constituencies.
The PNM and UNC must either retain or capture these constituencies to win.
The PNM holds Tobago East, San Fernando West, St Joseph, Tunapuna, La Horquetta/Talparo and Toco/Sangre Grande.
NACTA said PNM Toco/Sangre Grande candidate Roger Monroe is holding off a strong challenge from UNC opponent Wayne Sturge in that constituency.
The PNM, NACTA continued, is also staving off strong challenges from the UNC in other constituencies it currently holds.
The UNC is on the back foot in three marginals which it holds- Moruga/Tableland, Chaguanas East and Barataria/San Juan.
"All three are very close that can go either way with PNM making voter-inroads."
NACTA said the UNC-held Cumuto/Manzanilla, Mayaro and Claxton Bay constituencies do not appear under serious threat of falling to the PNM.
The same applies to the Arouca/Lopinot constituency now held by the PNM.
But NACTA added, "All four are interesting contests."
NACTA said its survey showed their is a small swing against the PNM and the UNC in constituencies which each of them currently hold.
But it is unclear if these gains are enough for either party to pick up constituencies which they do not currently have.
NACTA hinted there is the possibility of one constituency in the East-West corridor to change hands.
That constituency was not named.
NACTA said, "The partisan or aligned voters unhesitatingly and enthusiastically stated who they are voting for, but many voters are silent, reluctant to reveal party preference or undecided and some are swing voters. Their vote holds the clue of a winner in a closely fought seat and by extension the general election."
One month ago, NACTA continued, the prospect of a closely fought election would have been a pipe dream with the PNM way ahead in the race.
NACTA said momentum created by the UNC's selection of new credible candidates in key marginal constituencies created one of the most astonishing poll turnarounds in the country.
"The UNC had trailed the PNM for years, and all of a sudden the UNC has overtaken PNM in popular support."
But NACTA added increases in popular support are irrelevant because the only thing that matters is the number of constituencies won in the first-past-the-post electoral system which Trinidad and Tobago operates under.
The PNM and UNC, NACTA repeated, both have an almost even chance of victory.
Incumbency may help the PNM to win.
But NACTA said the UNC could if it gets tailwinds from voters expressing strong feelings of anti-incumbency against the PNM.
"Young voters will make a difference in the election. They are not as partisan as their parents and grandparents. Both major parties are wooing the youth vote."
NACTA said the survey showed the PNM has been able to take away some of the UNC's momentum.
"Latest findings reveal PNM has managed to stem the haemorrhage in the last couple days. If a significant swing against the incumbent materialises, it could lead to seismic political change."
In Tobago, NACTA said the PNM has the advantage in Tobago East which it currently holds
But the Tobago People's Party (TPP) has an opportunity to capture one seat in Tobago if the TPP does not split votes with the Progressive Democratic Patriots (PDP).
The Tobago West constituency is also currently held by the PNM.
There are seven parties (including PNM, TPP and PDP) contesting this constituency.
Five parties (including PNM, TPP and PDP) are contesting Tobago East.
Smaller parties like the National Transformation Alliance (NTA) and Patriotic Front (PF) are attracting support from voters who are disgruntled with the PNM and UNC.
NACTA repeated that while these parties may not win any constituency and most of their candidates may lose their deposits, they could determine whether the PNM or the UNC wins the constituencies they need to win the election.
Watson Duke’s PDP is taking away from Farley Augustine’s TPP.
