POLITICAL scientist Dr Bishnu Ragoonath said the Prime Minister's intention to step down puts the PNM under the pressure of having internal and general elections.
Speaking with Newsday on January 3, minutes after Dr Rowley said he would not seek re-election as he addressed a post-Cabinet briefing in Tobago, Ragoonath said that in 2015, Rowley said he wanted to be a one-term prime minister – a remark he repeated in 2020 but still ended up being re-elected.
"He gave the impression he was on his way out and the party has to start looking for a (new) leader and that is when the whole big issue about whether or not Stuart Young, Foster Cummings or whoever else (could lead)." Ragoonath said Rowley had just said the party needs to get a new leader before the next general elections.
"We will now have to wait and see how the PNM decides to deal with this leadership vacancy that will arise within the next few months, and whether or not that leadership vacancy could create a distraction within the PNM."
He said the party now has to face facilitating both an internal election and fighting a general election.
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"You are putting the party on a double-edged sword. First they have to fight off the internal challenges and deal with that, and also the external."
Recalling UNC leader Kamla Persad-Bissessar dubbing last year's UNC national executive elections as one of the bitterest ever, Ragoonath wondered if the PNM would handle things differently. Of the PNM leadership contest, he said, "Whoever takes it becomes prime minister almost immediately."
He doubted Rowley had discussed all this with the PNM General Council but likely only with his inner Cabinet.
"The question here is that we don't know for a fact how the party's General Council will deal with this." He recalled that two council members kicked up a fuss against a decision to defer the party's convention and internal elections.
With vacant posts of PNM leader and national executive soon, he said it is unclear whether the PNM will go into an early convention and elect a new political leader. "It is too early to tell what the party will decide.
"From the tone of Dr Rowley, I doubt very much that he will want to dictate to the party who should be the next leader. So I will wait and see how the party decides how to elect or select their next leader." Ragoonath opted to not speculate on who top contenders may be , or if a dark horse could win.
"I think Dr Rowley may have his own preferences.
"There are several factions within the PNM which may may have their own preference. I am not a member of the PNM, so I will not dare try to say who will be the front runners. "
Newsday asked the qualities of a political leader, such as being able to walk with both princes and paupers and straddle the higher and lower classes of people."
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Ragoonath said a new leader must be able to win the support of the PNM base, rather that the party's upper and middle classes.
"The party needs people who could present themselves in a diplomatic manner that would allow them to straddle not only the lower classes, but to walk with the kings and princes and to deal with them and treat with them."
He said while TT may once have led the Caribbean in having eminent leaders, today the focus in on Barbados PM Mia Mottley and Guyana's President Dr Irfaan Ali.
"You see both of those leaders never losing touch with the common man, but being able to rub shoulders with world leaders and be acclaimed within the context of world leadership.
"That is one of the challenges we may have. Yes, you have people who may have qualifications and may have the party's support, but the question is whether people will see them as being able to rank along those lines where not only do they have the base support but they could rub shoulders and walk with the princes and kings."
As to one possible scenario of Rowley stepping down as prime minister but persisting as PNM leader, Ragoonath said appears unlikely.
He viewed Rowley's reference to wanting to spend more time with his family as a clean sweep to leave both positions.
Otherwise, the TT Constitution (section 76) says the President shall name as prime minister the person leading the party with most seats in the House of Representatives, or failing that, the person who commands the support of most elected MPs in the House.
The latter provision opens the door to PNM MPs caucusing to select from among themselves a new prime minister, who would presumably lead the party into the general election and then presumably afterwards face a party convention at which to seek party leadership.
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Alternatively, the PNM could have its national convention before the general election, with the mass membership electing a new leader as political leader to lead the party into the general election.
