POLITICAL scientist Derek Ramsamooj believes the division between the two main opposition parties in Tobago – the Tobago People’s Party (TPP) and the Progressive Democratic Patriots (PDP) – and the addition of several new ones could allow the People’s National Movement (PNM) to retain the Tobago East seat in the April 28 general election.
“What we must consider is whether the two Opposition parties, the PDP, led by Watson Duke and the TPP, led by Farley Augustine, that that internal competitiveness within the opposition to the PNM can facilitate the PNM holding on to the Tobago East seat. So an opposition that is further divided will augur well for the PNM to hold the Tobago East seat in the general election,” he told Sunday Newsday.
Some five political parties are contesting the seat in the upcoming poll. The candidates, including the PNM’s former Tobago East MP Ayanna Webster-Roy, filed their nomination papers on April 4 at the John Dial Multipurpose Facility.
The Opposition United National Congress is contesting the election in a coalition, which includes the Congress of the People, the Progressive Empowerment Party and trade unions. But it is not contesting the two Tobago seats.
Ramsamooj acknowledged the public perception that the Tobago seats, more so Tobago East, will play a pivotal role in forming a new government in the general election.
>
He recalled there was a lot of political speculation even during the National Alliance for Reconstruction’s 1986-1991 term in government and in the former Basdeo Panday administration when ANR Robinson was the MP for Tobago East.
“It also influenced the creation of the UNC-led government.”
Ramsamooj said one must understand how the Tobagonian may vote in a general election as opposed to a Tobago House of Assembly election.
“Tobago East has always been considered a higher level of anti-PNM political sentiment as when ANR Robinson was the area’s representative for many years.
“The question is, ‘What is the level of dissatisfaction with the PNM at the central government level or the Farley Augustine-led THA administration?”
Depending on the level of dissatisfaction, he said, mega-projects such as the ANR Robinson International Airport expansion project may not give the PNM the political leverage it may require to win the seat.
“Tobago’s politics is very community-based and people must be able to trust their candidates and see the capacity to deliver a better quality of life to the average Tobagonian.”
Ramsamooj said while there may be “intellectual conversations” about greater autonomy for Tobago “that really translates into greater opportunity for more money to be poured into Tobago’s governance.
“So the ability to get more funding for the administration of Tobago from the central government...is perhaps going to be a greater influencer when you consider that the THA is perhaps the single largest employer.”
>
He added the realities in the island’s tourism sector also can influence voting patterns and the outcome of the election.
“The tourism challenge of getting foreign investors to develop the tourist sector will always be a challenge if a proper development framework is not developed and managed by the people of Tobago with the blessings of the central government. So a Tobago consensus framework must be created to look after Tobago’s economy.”
Ramsamooj believes the PNM’s capacity to keep the two Tobago seats is critical in shaping whichever party forms the government.
“What is perhaps the PNM’s advantage is the fact that the former prime minister (Dr Keith Rowley), who is still the political leader of the PNM, has the capacity to influence the ground. The Tobago election is a ground campaign and the trust the electorate may have in their candidates and their capacity to deliver and move forward is going to be critical.”
He added, "You must access to the resources of Trinidad and Tobago, whoever forms the government. You cannot be in Opposition and expect to get the resources needed to improve the quality of life of the Tobagonian.”
