Do abstaining voters hold the key to Brazil’s 2026 presidential election? 

Abstaining voters like Campelo are a diverse group, according to experts. Their reasons for dodging the ballot box can vary dramatically.

Mayra Goulart, a political scientist at the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, said that those who actively reject Lula and Bolsonaro may only be a minority of Brazil’s abstainers.

Many could be merely uninterested in politics. "Life is difficult enough that they don't have the headspace, time or resources to devote to politics," she explained.

Luciana Veiga, a political science professor at the Federal University of the State of Rio de Janeiro, also pointed out that Brazil’s abstainers are not merely a bloc of disillusioned voters waiting to be won over.

They may have practical considerations that prevent them from casting a ballot. “We cannot say that abstention is simply a political 'no' to voting," Veiga said.

Abstention, she noted, often occurs among people who move cities without transferring their voter registration, as well as those who have work or family care duties on election day.

There are also some voters in isolated areas who struggle to reach distant polling stations.

In addition, voting is optional for 16- and 17-year-olds, people aged 70 or older, and those who cannot read or write.

"Of Brazil's electorate of [158.7] million people, around 21 million are not legally required to vote," Veiga explained.

The penalty for failing to vote is often minor. Without justification for their absence, voters face a fine of up to 3.51 Brazilian reals — less than a dollar — and can have their registrations cancelled after three missed elections in a row.

Until these fines are paid, citizens are unable to obtain or renew passports and other ID documents, nor can they take part in the selection process for civil service jobs.