Economist Professor Roger Hosein says Trinidad and Tobago must urgently boost tourism earnings and labour force participation if it is to strengthen its economy, warning the country may have “one last chance” to put its finances on a sustainable path.
Speaking on CNC3’s The Morning Brew yesterday, ahead of next Monday’s Budget 2027 presentation, Hosein said the country continues to face fiscal challenges after years of deficit spending.
He said he did not expect T&T to quickly emerge from deficit budgets, particularly without a significant increase in energy revenues.
“I can’t see coming out of a deficit budget unless Exxon comes on stream soon,” Hosein said, referring to potential future oil and gas production.
However, he stressed the country could not depend solely on the energy sector. Instead, he urged greater focus on non-energy exports, tourism and expanding the labour force.
Hosein welcomed Government’s target of increasing non-energy exports of goods and services by US$5 billion by 2030, though he noted even reaching US$2 billion would be a significant achievement.
He said the benefits of stronger non-energy exports would extend beyond foreign exchange earnings, generating valuable economic linkages across multiple sectors.
Tourism, he argued, remains one of the country’s most accessible growth opportunities.
Hosein noted that T&T recorded approximately 400,000 overnight visitors in 2025 and should target one million by 2035.
He also called for increased visitor spending, which averaged US$1,554 per tourist in 2025. If arrivals rise to one million and spending reaches US$2,200 per visitor, tourism activity could generate about US$2.2 billion annually, he said.
Carnival, he added, offers particularly strong growth potential. Visitor expenditure linked to the festival reached US$444 million in 2026 and should be increased to at least US$1 billion by 2030, he noted. Achieving that goal, however, will require improvements in airlift, hotel capacity, occupancy rates and targeted international marketing.
“We just have to go after our fair share of the pie,” Hosein said, citing Carnival, wildlife, culture and other attractions as key selling points.
But he cautioned that increased spending alone would not deliver results, as greater productivity among agencies responsible for tourism, trade and investment is equally important.
Hosein also called for urgent measures to reverse the country’s declining labour force. He said the labour force stood at about 592,000 in 2025, well below 2015 levels, and urged policies to increase participation through stronger adult literacy programmes, expanded vocational and on-the-job training, and bridging programmes to help workers gain skills.
He also called for intervention to reduce poor performance at the primary school level, arguing educational failure can have long-term socioeconomic consequences.
Looking ahead, Hosein said T&T would eventually need to better integrate Venezuelan migrants into the formal economy, including through contributions to the National Insurance System. He stressed, however, that economic policy should focus on creating sustainable jobs rather than simply increasing informal employment.
On the energy front, Hosein said an expected increase in gas production over the coming years could help stimulate growth and urged businesses to prepare now.
Entrepreneurs, he said, should invest in equipment, storage and workers ahead of increased gas flows to take advantage of future opportunities.
He also welcomed improving relations between T&T and Venezuela, saying closer ties could create new economic prospects.
At the same time, Hosein urged policymakers to continue developing domestic energy resources, including potential discoveries in local waters.
Any future windfall from higher energy revenues, he said, should be managed prudently, with a larger share directed to the Heritage and Stabilisation Fund rather than consumed through transfers and subsidies.
“We are probably going to get one last chance to fix this economy,” Hosein said.
Despite his concerns, Hosein said he remained cautiously optimistic, describing the economic glass as “half full” and pointing to the International Monetary Fund’s latest projections as evidence T&T may be entering its strongest five-year economic period in years.
His advice to citizens was straightforward: live within their means, work hard, plan ahead and save.
“Make some money and put it aside,” Hosein said.
