Political scientist: Marginal seats could decide THA elections

Jesse Ramdeo

Se­nior Re­porter

[email protected]

With To­ba­go head­ing to the polls on Mon­day, at­ten­tion is on how po­lit­i­cal par­ties are con­cen­trat­ing re­sources and rhetoric on a hand­ful of mar­gin­al elec­toral dis­tricts that could ul­ti­mate­ly de­cide con­trol of the To­ba­go House of As­sem­bly (THA).

While the To­ba­go Peo­ple’s Par­ty (TPP) en­ters the race as the gov­ern­ing force, the Peo­ple’s Na­tion­al Move­ment (PNM) is aim­ing for a po­lit­i­cal re­vival. The con­tests in Buc­coo/Mt Pleas­ant, Dar­rel Spring/Whim, Sig­nal Hill/Pa­tience Hill, and Ply­mouth/Black Rock un­der­score just how com­pet­i­tive and un­pre­dictable this elec­tion could be.

Po­lit­i­cal sci­en­tist Dr Maukesh Bas­deo cau­tioned that this poll can­not be seen as a con­tin­u­a­tion of 2021.

“In that year, we had two elec­tions,” Bas­deo ex­plained. “The first re­sult­ed in a hung as­sem­bly, with an equal num­ber of seats be­tween the PDP and the PNM. That led to bound­ary changes, in­creas­ing the num­ber of seats from 12 to 15.”

The sec­ond elec­tion de­liv­ered a 14–1 land­slide in favour of the Peo­ple’s De­mo­c­ra­t­ic Pa­tri­ots (PDP). How­ev­er, Dr Bas­deo stressed that the po­lit­i­cal con­di­tions that pro­duced that out­come no longer ex­ist.

“The split with­in the PDP and the for­ma­tion of the TPP all re­main high­ly rel­e­vant when look­ing at the elec­tion next Mon­day,” he said.

He added that the April 28 gen­er­al elec­tion last year rep­re­sent­ed the re­al po­lit­i­cal test for the TPP.

“Be­fore that, the TPP was part of the PDP’s ma­chin­ery. It was on­ly in the gen­er­al elec­tion that the TPP tru­ly es­tab­lished it­self as a dis­tinct po­lit­i­cal force,” Bas­deo said.

As a re­sult, he not­ed, the Jan­u­ary 12 poll will test sev­er­al un­re­solved po­lit­i­cal ques­tions: whether the TPP can car­ry its gen­er­al elec­tion mo­men­tum to the THA, whether the PNM can halt its re­cent elec­toral slide, and whether To­ba­go’s mar­gin­al dis­tricts will again de­ter­mine the bal­ance of pow­er.

Buc­coo/Mt Pleas­ant has emerged as one of the most close­ly watched races, not on­ly be­cause of its elec­toral im­por­tance but al­so due to its un­usu­al po­lit­i­cal dy­nam­ic. In 2021, the dis­trict fell to the PDP in an is­land-wide surge, with for­mer Chief Sec­re­tary An­cil Den­nis los­ing by just four votes.

The PNM To­ba­go po­lit­i­cal leader now faces TPP can­di­date Keigon De­noon, a for­mer PNM ex­ec­u­tive. De­noon’s can­di­da­cy has drawn at­ten­tion be­cause he was once con­sid­ered a pro­tégé of Den­nis be­fore de­fect­ing to the TPP, adding a per­son­al edge to a race al­ready de­fined by com­pet­ing nar­ra­tives of lead­er­ship, loy­al­ty, and po­lit­i­cal evo­lu­tion.

Speak­ing with Guardian Me­dia, De­noon ex­tend­ed good wish­es to Den­nis while ex­press­ing hope for vic­to­ry. Den­nis was al­so con­fi­dent.

“We in the PNM are con­fi­dent that we have made a strong case, es­pe­cial­ly re­gard­ing our vi­sion for tak­ing To­ba­go for­ward. To­ba­go has gone back­wards over the last four years,” he said.

Dar­rel Spring/Whim is an­oth­er dis­trict un­der scruti­ny. In­cum­bent PNM rep­re­sen­ta­tive Kelvon Mor­ris faces Elon Berkley of the In­no­v­a­tive De­mo­c­ra­t­ic Al­liance and TPP nom­i­nee Ricky Michael Joe­field. In 2021, Mor­ris re­tained the seat by just three votes over the PDP’s Ab­by Tay­lor.

Sig­nal Hill/Pa­tience Hill al­so ex­em­pli­fies the is­land’s mar­gin­al pol­i­tics. In 2021, PDP can­di­date Nigel Taitt won by just over 20 votes. He is now con­test­ing the seat un­der the TPP ban­ner against PNM chal­lenger Bri­an Har­ris, mak­ing it an­oth­er tight­ly con­test­ed dis­trict to watch.